The Main Financial Accounting Ratios

·         Return on Capital Employed (Primary Ratio, ROCE)

Trading profit as a percentage of capital employed

Trading profit must be before deduction of any return to providers of long-term funds, and is usually taken before any exceptional items – thus is profit before interest and tax. Capital employed is the total long-term funding of the business, calculated as shareholders’ funds (including all reserves) plus all long term loans. Some authorities also include any excess of current liabilities over current assets, as this is, effectively, long term funding.

·         Return on Shareholders’ Funds

Profit available to equity shareholders as a percentage of equity capital

The profit figure is after all deductions, including any preference dividend, but before any equity dividend. Equity capital is ordinary share capital plus all reserves (exclude preference share capital)

·         Gross profit margin

Gross profit as a percentage of sales

This is a key measure of the relationship between input cost and price. It will change only as a result of changes in cost or selling prices. A less used, but allied ratio is “mark-up” which tells the same story but by calculating gross profit as a percentage of cost of sales.

·         Net profit margin

Net profit as a percentage of sales

This is best seen as indicating how much of each £1 of sales (in pence) is left as profit after all expenses are deducted. As a comparative measure over time, it is usual to use trading profit (before interest and tax), although other statement of comprehensive income figures can be used. One approach is to calculate all of the profit and loss figures as a percentage of sales.

·         Current ratio

The number of times current assets covers current liabilities

·         Quick assets ratio (acid test or liquidity ratio)

The number of times current assets less stocks and work-in-progress cover current liabilities

·         Debtors turnover (credit given)

Average debtors divided by credit sales times 365 days

Average debtors is usually taken to be the statement of financial position figure at the end of the year, but it is more accurate to average the debtors over the period during which the sales were earned, if opening statement of financial position figures are available

·         Creditors turnover (credit taken)

Average creditors divided by cost of sales times 365 days

·         Stock turnover

Average stock divided by cost of sales times 365 days

As with debtors and creditors, the average is often assumed to be the end of period statement of financial position figure, but a more accurate calculation will result if opening and closing stock for the period are averaged

·         Asset turnover

Sales divided by non-current assets (or total assets less current liabilities)

This seeks to measure how effectively assets are being used to generate sales. Used with care, it’s a useful measure in a capital intensive organisation, but it is easily distorted by the effects of changes in assets and depreciation. Sales or profit per employee might be more useful in a labour intensive organisation.

·         Gearing

Long term borrowing as a percentage of capital employed

This is sometimes alternatively calculated as long term borrowing as a percentage of shareholders’ funds. A further variant is to include excess current liabilities over current assets or even all current liabilities, as part of borrowing. A more accurate assessment of the risks of gearing can be gained from the interest cover ratio.

·         Interest cover

The number of times profit before interest covers the interest charge

·         Earnings per share

Profit available to equity shareholders divided by number of issued shares

·         Price/earnings ratio

Share price divided by earnings per share

To be most useful, this should be calculated using the average share price during the year in which the earnings were made, but this is rarely done. Most commonly the last reported earnings are compared with current share price, thus turning the ratio into a measure of the stock market’s expectations about the company

·         Horizontal or trend analysis
If two of more years’ figures are available, the percentage change of key indicators (such as sales, various costs, working capital, gearing, etc.) can be calculated over time.

A critical review of the 'Nyerere Doctrine of State Succession'.

The relationship between international law and municipal or rather domestic law has been saddled by an array of conflicting ideas, notably with regards to the application of International law on an emerging state. This problem has manifested itself mostly in the African continent as a direct consequence of independence of African states. In simple and plain language one can submit that the main debate which troubles the minds of international lawyers, political leaders, as well as national courts is ‘what happens when a new state emerges? And whether should state be bound by international commitments of its predecessors? (UNEP official website). For the purpose of this essay first the meaning of state succession in the light of several ways in which a state can emerge will be given. Then the debate will shift to the main theme of this piece of work which is to discuss the validity of pre-existing international laws on a new emerged state. The discussion will entirely base on conflicting theories on the issue, one of which being the ‘optional doctrine’ or authoritatively known as ‘the Nyerere Doctrine of State Succession'.

State succession in layman’s terms can be equated to state emergence i. e a new state emerging out of a prior existing one. Tiyanjana argues that State succession is generally regarded as arising when there is a definitive replacement of one State by another in respect of sovereignty over a given territory. By virtue of a UNEP official website a state can emerge in several ways; A State can become independent from a colonial power, entering the community of nations as a peer (as was common in the three decades following World War II). States can be created with the dissolution of a former State (for example with the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia). States can also be created by combining previously independent states.

The problem of State succession and in particular the succession of newly independent States to pre-independence treaties has been of particular relevance to the African continent over a long period after independence (Tiyanjana Maluwa, International Law in Post-Colonial Africa). As cited in UNEP official website, the general principle with regards to succession is, when a new state emerges the principle of succession applies. This means that the new emerging State inherits the international obligations that its predecessor had made. This general principle testifies to the basic value of international society which emphasises the importance of continuation and stability of international order (Marco A. Alternative Approach to the International Law of State Succession). Such adherence to the doctrine of succession can be seen in the case of Nigeria, whereby Nigeria subjected itself to all the treaties and international commitments entered by its colonial masters (the British).

Nonetheless, while the doctrine of succession was adhered by such a nation as Nigeria, some other African countries opposed such a ‘political submissive approach’ thus opted to apply opposing doctrines such as clean-slate doctrine, and Nyerere doctrine of State succession. Commencing with the clean-slate doctrine, this is the one under which a new State starts without any of the obligations of the predecessor State. That is, the successor state acquires its territory with a clean-slate or tabulas rasa, therefore under no obligation to succeed pre-independence treaties. Such a doctrine was tipped to be used in Namibia by Makonnen’s when he urged that, following Namibia’s accession independence on 21, March 1990, as far as succession is concerned the most appropriate approach to be used should be the clean-slate doctrine. Tiyanjana Maluwa argues that Makonnen reached such a conclusion on the ground that all dealing by South Africa and other aliens concerning Namibia since October 1966 were illegal and therefore invalid, as a result of the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (declaring the continuing South Africa occupation of the territory illegal). This conclusion is somewhat correct and arguably has been vindicated by Article 145 of the Namibian Constitution.

A major criticism to the clean-slate doctrine has been offered by Udokang when he argued that ‘abrupt discontinuity of all treaty obligations contracted by Predecessor State might well lead to a legal vacuum and serious confusion where the Successor State can find themselves isolated from international community. (Okon, Udokang. Succession of New States to International Treaties 19 (1972)).

The second conflicting doctrine to that of traditional adherence to succession is termed the ‘Nyerere doctrine of State succession’. Julius Nyerere, the first President of Tanzania, considered that international agreements dating from colonial times should be renegotiated when a State becomes independent, as the nation should not be bound by something that the nation was not in a sovereign position to agree to at that time. According to this doctrine, a newly independent State can – upon independence – review the international treaties that it stands to inherit and decide which of the agreements it will accept and which it will repudiate. Although such an “optional” approach to events of State succession was not new and was already recognized by customary international law, Nyerere is recognized for the modern formulation of the optional doctrine of the law of State succession. It is worth mentioning that this doctrine came to existence after Nyerere (the Prime Minister of newly independent Tanganyika) made a unilateral declaration to the Acting general Secretary of the UN in 1961.

Further, with regards to multilateral treaties, the new government would review them and indicate to the depositary concerned what steps would be taken in relation to each such instrument, whether by way of confirmation of termination, confirmation of succession or accession. Nyerere doctrine is advantageous in several ways;

a) It allows states to fill the void created by the lapse of predecessor’s treaties while maintaining the right to examine each treaty individually before deciding whether to maintain such legal obligations.

b) With the above advantage, Nyerere doctrine is also important as it rectifies the aforementioned shortcomings with regards to negative succession or clean-slate doctrine.

c) Unlike the clean-slate doctrine under which a new State starts without any of the obligations of the predecessor State, Nyerere doctrine of succession however, does not rule out or prejudice the possibility or desirability of renewal (after a legal interruption during the succession) of commitments or agreements of mutual interest to the parties concerned.

I wouldn’t offer a conclusion as this was just an open debate on several approaches to State Succession, significantly the Nyerere doctrine of State succession. I hope the above piece of academic work offers good introduction, insight, as well understanding to the key issues revolving around the concept of succession.

Nyerere Doctrine of state succession

What happens when a new State emerges? Is it bound by the international commitments of its predecessor? There are a couple ways in which a new State can emerge, and these have potentially different implications. A State can become independent from a colonial power, entering the community of nations as a peer (as was common in the three decades following World War II). States can be created with the dissolution of a former State (for example with the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia). States can also be created by combining previously independent states.
When a new State emerges, the international law of succession applies. Succession provides that a new State inherits the international obligations that its predecessor had made. In the 1950s and 1960s, many African colonies achieved independence. While some followed the doctrine of succession (such as Nigeria), others followed the Nyerere Doctrine of selective succession to treaties. Julius Nyerere, the first President of Tanzania, considered that international agreements dating from colonial times should be renegotiated when a State becomes independent, as the nation should not be bound by something that the nation was not in a sovereign position to agree to at that time. According to this doctrine, a newly independent State can – upon independence – review the international treaties that it stands to inherit and decide which of the agreements it will accept and which it will repudiate. Although such an “optional” approach to events of State succession was not new and was already recognized by customary international law, Nyerere is recognized for the modern formulation of the optional doctrine of the law of State succession.
This “optional doctrine” is more refined than that of the tabula rasa, the classical doctrine of clean slate, under which a new State starts without any of the obligations of the predecessor State. Under the Nyerere Doctrine, this is only an assumption, as the doctrine does not rule out or prejudice the possibility or desirability of renewal (after a legal interruption during the succession) of commitments or agreements of mutual interest to the parties concerned. This doctrine however rejects any categorization of international obligations between those which the successor State would have to accept and those which it could reconsider. Nyerere also created a formula for the practical application of this doctrine, which provides for an interim reflection period during which some of the predecessor’s treaties apply provisionally while the successor chooses which treaties it will renew or renegotiate and which it will set aside.
Both the doctrine and the formula, with country-specific variations, served as a framework for State succession in East African States as well as for many other emerging developing countries. In most instances, predecessor States and third-party States have accepted – if not indeed supported – the application of the Nyerere Doctrine.
For more information, see (for example) State Succession and the New States of East Africa, by Yilma Makonne

"United nations environement programme" http://www.unep.org/dec/onlinemanual/Compliance/Resource/tabid/594/Default.aspx

Law of Tort- Negligence & Causation

Question
The employers claim that even if they had supplied protective equipment before 1977 Tom would not have used it, because initially many employees objected to the equipment, saying that it was uncomfortable to wear. The employers also state that Tom did not begin to use the protective equipment regularly until 1980 when he began to appreciate the significance of his hearing loss. It has also become apparent that many years ago Tom contracted an illness which can itself cause progressive long-term hearing impairment, and the employers claim that his present condition is largely, if not wholly, attributable to that illness.

Advise Tom as to:

(a) the basis on which the court would determine whether the employers had been negligent; and

(b) whether, and if so how, he will be able to prove causation


Model Answer
In order for a court to assess whether or not Tom employers have been negligent, the court’s assessment will entirely be inclined in the three questions; Did Tom’s employers owe a duty of care to Tom?, if the answer to the first question is yes, then the court will consider whether the employers breached their duty? Lastly, the court will consider whether that particular breach caused Tom damage, however, that damage must not be too remote.

In tort of negligence, in order to establish tortious liabilities there are three requirements which need to be established. Firstly, duty of care must be owed by the defendant to the claimant, secondly this duty must be breached, meaning that the defendant’s conduct must fall below the standard of care that ought to have been adopted in the circumstance. Thirdly the breach must have caused the claimant’s damage and not be too “remote”.

In this scenario the first issue that the court will consider is, was there a duty of care which employers owed to Tom? The leading modern test on duty of care was established in Caparo v Dickman where it was held that three criteria must be satisfied before a court establishes duty of care; firstly, the damage must be foreseeable; secondly, there must be a sufficiently proximate relationship between the parties, and thirdly, it must be ‘just and reasonable’ for a court to establish a duty of care in the light of policy consideration with which the court is concerned. Based on Caparo, the first criterion on foreseeabilty has to be satisfied. This is a question of what reasonable person would have foreseen as opposed to what the defendant (employers) actually did foresee. Based on facts, it is arguably that a reasonable person would have foreseen, exposing employees on high levels of noise without equipping them with protective equipments will lead to hearing impairments. The second test is that of proximity of relations, which in Lord Oliver’s words in Caparo case, proximity does not necessarily indicate ‘closeness in a physical or metaphorical sense but merely.. a convenient label to describe circumstances from which the law will attribute a duty of care. In the scenario in hand, it is undoubtedly that any court will establish an existence of proximate relationship between Tom and his employers due to the contractual nature of their relationship. Nonetheless, court will also have to consider the last criteria, of ‘just and reasonable’. From the case in hand, it is just and reasonable to impose a duty on employers who exposes their employees in such working environment (excessive noise).

After establishing a duty, the court will then shift to consider if Tom employers breached their duty. Breach of duty simply means the defendant has fallen below the standard of care expected from someone undertaking the activity concerned (Vaughan v Menlove) . In that sense a test is an objective one. In Blyth v Waterworks Co it was provided that, negligence is the omission to do something which a reasonable man, guided upon those considerations which ordinarily regulate the conduct of human affairs would do... Thus, in the scenario in hand it is most likely the court will establish a breach of duty based on two reason; First any reasonable person would expect employers to provide their employees with protective equipments, secondly employers also failed to perform their statutory duties as provided by the Ministry of Employment.

On the other-hand employers seem to argue that their omission should not amount to negligence because even they had provided it, Tom wouldn’t have used it, because many employees objected to the use of it due to discomfort reasons. Nonetheless this argument will not succeed because the law provides that ‘a reasonable person would only neglect the risk if he had ‘valid’ reasons for doing so. In the scenario in hand, the fact that many employees considered the equipment to be uncomfortable is not a valid reason for the employers not to provide such equipments because a reasonable person should have weighed his duty oto his employees, as well as his statutory duty against employees comfort. A reasonable conclusion can be drawn that, employers failure is unjustifiable since a reasonable person would have initiated for the use of such important equipments. Further their argument is also flawed by the fact that, the Practical Guidance on Assessment and Selection of welding ppe (PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT FOR WELDING AND ALLIED PROCESSES: PRACTICAL GUIDANCE ON ASSESSMENT AND SELECTION, section 11 (3)), provides that ppe should fit each worker properly without causing undue discomfort . In that sense, initially employers have a duty of finding such ppe which would not cause discomfort. Therefore any discomfort cannot be used an excuse for not providing extra ppe.

The third issue that court will consider in order to draw a conclusion on whether or not Tom’s employers had been negligent is the issue on causation, i. e whether the breach caused damage to Tom. The starting point is the ‘but for test’ which provides that....if damage to C would not have occurred ‘but for’ D’s negligence the negligence is a cause of the damage (Barnett v Chelsea& Kensington HMC) . This test aims at excluding all things which have no bearing to the damage (University of London External Programme). In that sense, in order for C’s claim to succeed it must be proven that without D’s negligence, the loss wouldn’t have occurred. In the scenario in hand, it is somewhat problematic to satisfy the ‘but for test’ because there are two probable causative agents to Tom’s deafness i. e the natural cause (illness), and employers negligence. In that sense, the court will then rely on other approaches regarding ‘multiple causes’ to establish negligence. Nonetheless based on Wilshere (Wilsher v Essex Area Health Authority)where health authority failed to detect that the catheter had been wrongly inserted and therefore the premature baby received too much oxygen. In this case the health authority’s failure was held to be negligent despite presence of some other factors which could cause such damages. Further, in the scenario, it is almost obvious that, the damage was not too remote, as any reasonable person will be able to know that exposure to excessive noise will lead to hearing impairments.

In summation, employers’ failure to equip Tom with protective instruments could also be regarded as negligence, but the question remains on whether that negligence is sufficient enough to allow Tom to receive damages. That is the question of proving causation, whose burden lies on Tom. The issue of proving causation will be considered in the next part of this essay.

b) In the scenario in hand the onus of proving causation seems to be somehow difficult due to the following reasons; uncertainty of facts as to which is the cause of the damage, and the issue of multiple defendants (employers). In that sense all the issue will be dealt with one at a time in order to draw a good conclusion.

For proof of causation, the claimant must be able to establish that on the balance of probabilities, there is a causal link between the breach of duty and his damage. It is insufficient only to point a possible link (Barker v Corus) . However for policy reasons; fairness, justice, in some circumstances court may reduce the evidential burden on the claimant (Cook v Lewis). In our scenario it is very difficult to come with one definite conclusion which points out that the industrial noise was the cause of deafness, because; Tom had a disease which could also be a cause, also there is no scientific evidence to prove on balance of probabilities between the two competing causes which one could be the sole one.

Nonetheless, In order to prove causation, first Tom has to show that on the balance of probabilities that the defendants’ breach of duty was a material cause of the injury (all or nothing approach) . In that sense it is not enough to prove that the defendants breach has increased the risk of the damage to occur. This principle will be used in this case as opposed to the one in Fairchild /McGhee on (material increase in risk) because in the scenario we are not certain as to which of the two is the cause of the damage. Applying this principle to the facts, it can be seen that, the outcome are rather detrimental or harsh on Tom’s side because in the fact there is nothing to show that industrial noise was a material cause of the damage. In order to satisfy the balance of probability test, 51% of the damage(hearing impairment) must have been caused by employers’ negligence (failure to protect workers from excessive noise)

Nonetheless, since it is difficult to satisfy the above test on the balance of probabilities because of lack of evidence, Tom might however succeed in his claim by using the principle in Bonnington Castings v Wardlaw in relation to cumulative causes. In Bonnington Castings it was established that... where the inadequacies of medical science mean that the relative potency of the causes cannot be established, C merely has to establish that D’s breach of duty was a ‘material’ contribution. In that sense, Tom can claim that industrial noise was material contribution to his hearing impairments by providing two reasons; firstly he can argue that during his employment period his hearing capacity kept on deteriorating reaching to 50% at the time of his retirement. This can highly be caused by excessive level of noise, because even the Government through Ministry of Employment has provided some duties on employees to protect their employers from excessive noise, knowing that such level of noise can lead to deafness. Further support can be found in case law, where in Bailey v Ministry of Defence , where despite the existence of two causes; pancreatitis, D’s negligent, to C’s weakened state, the court however held that causation was established by simply proving that D’s negligent contributed materially to the overall weakness. Thus, since excessive noise contributes to the overall hearing impairment, causation can thus be established.

Further support can be found in the exception of the general rule established in Wilshere. In Fairchild the HL explicitly provided that in certain situations especially in cases where employees suffer grave harm at the expense of their employers who owed the them a duty of protecting them against that very harm and failed to do so, then the stringent rule on balance of probabilities will be exempted .

Auditing- Auditor's Independence

Independent auditing is an essential feature of efficient capital markets and regulators have long been concerned with potential threats to auditor independence. In the wake of the Enron bankruptcy, concerns about auditor independence have prompted Congress to enact legislation that bans most auditor-provided non-audit services. Regulators' concerns about non audit services are based on the assumption that auditors are willing to sacrifice their independence in exchange for retaining clients that pay large non-audit fees. A problem with this assumption, however, is that it ignores auditors' expected costs of compromising their independence. In particular, loss of reputation and litigation costs is likely to provide strong incentives for auditors to maintain their independence.
            The independence of an audit is impossible for anyone on the outside of the process to assess. This creates problems in a world where there is a belief, mistaken or not, that a process that cannot be seen must be flawed. What no one can know is how far the company is under pressure from the auditor over some accounting treatment or other or how far the company is trying to intimidate the auditor with the threat of sacking. You can take into account anecdotal evidence.

 I heard recently about what had happened at a highly respected FTSE 100 company several years ago. There was a conflict between the finance director and the chief executive over a significant and material item of accounting treatment. The lead audit partner backed the finance director. A meeting ensued during which, as one observer put it, the audit partner was subjected to "a stream of obscenities and profanities" from the chief executive. The audit partner stuck to his guns. The figures went out in the form that the finance director and the audit partner decreed. But the firm later lost the audit. That is a good example of the sort of thing that critics of the audit system insist cannot occur.
       
 It is always suggested that if the audit is at stake, the auditor will always back down. Undoubtedly it does happen. But human nature prefers to be awkward rather than compliant. Auditors are more likely to be ornery than subservient.
The example also fits well with the findings of the only recent research into the process. Last year's book* by Vivien Beattie, Stella Fearnley and Richard Brandt filled in many of the gaps in our knowledge.  "A key problem for both regulators and standard setters is that the audit process itself is unobservable," they said. "Only the participants in the process, the auditors and the company management, know how decisions are reached."
       
        The importance of this is that it makes it very hard for those on the outside to create some sort of regulatory framework that will somehow limit the possibility of any loss of independence at the heart of the audit process.
       
        Certainly the researchers' findings suggested that tightening rules could change the culture but that the central issue of human nature would always remain. For them the two key areas are very simple. "What you have to worry about," said Stella Fearnley, reader in accounting at Portsmouth Business School, "is the intimidation of the auditor and the auditor's fear of losing a client."
      To counter the current feeling is that audit committees will have a greater part to play. Audit committees have the ability to stand in the middle, detect such threats and then do something about counteracting them. However, Mrs Fearnley counsels against too much reliance on audit committees. "They don't always support the auditor," she suggested this week.
        "If there is a bid for the company coming in and they are trying to bump up the share price in an effort to prevent the bid, then the non-executive directors will feel they need to support the executive directors rather than the auditors in such a situation because if the bid went through, the non-executive directors would be dumped as well."
       
        It is a complex world and rules don't fit all the eventualities. Where people should be concentrating is on what Mrs Fearnley and her co-authors see as the greatest threat to auditor independence: intimidation. We are back to bullies. And it is no surprise that, as the background and the detail unfolds, the biggest corporate collapses on the current American scene have been characterised by bullying behaviour from the executive directors. This is exactly what the UK went through just over a decade ago with Robert Maxwell and Asil Nadir among others.
 If this is where the real threat to audit independence lies, it is worth looking at ways to combat it. One method is exactly what has been happening over the past decade in the UK in the tightening of the corporate governance culture to squeeze such people out of overall power. The other is to concentrate on the detail, to which the full force of the law must be attached.
       Al Capone, the Chicago gangster, never went to prison for any shootings. ( I met a retired policeman in Chicago this summer who is still trying to sort out who precisely did what in the St Valentine's Day Massacre.) Capone was finally put away for tax evasion.
        Probably the most important new move to shore up auditor independence lies in the new draft company’s bill published last month. It contains, in clause 108 (6), under the duty of company directors to volunteer information to auditors, the stricture that if a director "knowingly or recklessly makes to an auditor of the company a statement (whether written or oral) that is misleading, false, or deceptive in a material particular", the person is guilty of a criminal offence. Imprisonment or a fine would follow conviction.
       
This is the key to future efforts at backing up the independence of auditors. There has been an offence of misleading auditors on the statute books for years. But although it provides an easy route to an open-and-shut case the lack of any deterrent penalty meant that prosecutors tended to ignore it. It was said that those responsible for the Polly Peck scandal could have been prosecuted very simply by this means. It was, supposedly, a matter of one memo as evidence and the case would have been over. But the sight of a corporate scandal being dealt with via the equivalent of community service was never going to be a sensible one.
      Assuming the proposed company’s bill reaches the statute book, the auditing profession will have a very powerful threat to back up their independence.
       

Management Accounting- Probability and decision

As an appliance dealer, you are deciding how to service your one-year warranty on the 1,000 colour television sets you have just sold to a large local hotel.  You have three alternatives:

1.   A reputable service firm has offered to service the sets, including all parts and labour, for a flat fee of £18,000.

2.   For £15,000, another reputable service firm would furnish all necessary parts and provide up to 1,000 service calls at no charge.  Service calls in excess of that number would be £4 each.  The number of calls is likely to be:

      Event                              Chance                      Probability             Total Cost
                                       of Occurrence              of Occurrence                 £

1,000 calls or less                     50%                               0.5                       15,000
1,500 calls                                   20                                0.2                       17,000
2,000 calls                                   20                                0.2                       19,000
2,500 calls                                   10                                0.1                       21,000
                                                 100%                            1.0
                                                  ===                               ==
3.   You can hire your own labour and buy your own parts.  Your past experience with similar work has helped you to formulate the following probabilities and total cost:

      Event                              Chance                      Probability             Total Cost
                                       of Occurrence              of Occurrence                  £

Little trouble                           10%                                  0.1                         8,000
Medium trouble                          70                                 0.7                       10,000
Much trouble                              20                                 0.2                       30,000
                                               100%                              1.0
                                                 ==                                  ==
Required:

Using the expected monetary value approach, compare the three alternatives. 
Which plan do you favour? Why?
                                                                                                                    (25 Marks)



Alternative
       (1)
     Event
         (2)
      Cost
       (3)
  Probability
       (4)
 Expected Cost  
  (5) = (3) x (4)    

Alternative 1:
Service firm,
flat fee


Any level of
 demand 


  £18,000


       1.0
       ===   


     £18,000
     ======

Alternative 2:
Service firm
fixed +
variable fee

1,000 calls or less
1,500 calls
2,000 calls
2,500 calls

  £15,000
    17,000
    19,000
    21,000


       0.5
       0.2
       0.2
       0.1
       1.0
      ===

    £75,000
        3,400
        3,800
        2,100
      16,800
      =====
Alternative 3:
Hire own labour + parts


Little trouble
Medium trouble
Much trouble


    £8,000
    10,000
    30,000

       0.1
       0.7
       0.2
       1.0
       ===

    £     800
        7,000
        6,000
      13,800
       =====



Hiring your own labour and buying your own parts (Alternative 3) is the preferred alternative.  It gives a maximum expected monetary value (lowest expected cost) of the three alternatives.

Note that there is a 20% chance that the cost of Alternative 3 will soar to £30,000, but there is no uncertainty about Alternative 1.  Comparison of the £18,000, £16,800, and £13,800 costs, by themselves, is not as informative as having these figures plus some idea of the probability distributions they represent.  The accountant should explicitly indicate the degree of uncertainty accompanying the relevant cost estimates.